Just as I was wondering what the new decade would bring - and hoping it'd be a bit of a break in the clouds so to speak - up pops a possible pandemic.
Not that we yet know the full seriousness of the outbreak.
But looking at the daily released case numbers, they appear to be increasing at a 15% to 20% rate on the previous day's totals, which is high. If this rate of new cases continues, then China can expect to list 100,000 cases by the middle of February. If it continues on the same growth trajectory unabated, 1 million by the start of March.
Of course this is a very simple projection and ignores all sorts of factors. With the measures Chinese authorities have taken, they may have 'broken the back' of the rate of infection and that will start to flow through in the case numbers shortly
I don't know - I'm just some schmuck on the internet, although that hasn't stopped similarly unqualified schmuckos holding forth on YouTube I notice. As long as you sound authoritative and perhaps add a dash of conspiracy for flavor, you'll get numpties leaving appreciative comments thanking you for providing the 'real news'. Sigh. But that's the internet for you.
On the other hand, there are voices from inside China claiming that the actual number of cases is far higher and that deaths are not always reported correctly but are routinely attributed to other causes such as 'pneumonia'. A conspiracy indeed. And maybe the official Chinese figures are more indicative of the increased availability of test kits in the affected provinces than a true infection figure for the population. I don't know but imagine more clues will emerge in the coming months and maybe for years to come.
Meanwhile cases outside of China remain minuscule - perhaps surprisingly so. 195 are listed at time of writing.
This is surprising given 5 million Chinese basically fucked off out of Wuhan at the start of the quarantine, leaving mostly for Hong Kong, Thailand, Singapore and Japan, as well as other parts of China. Some carried the infection and Japan, Thailand, Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea are now at the top of the list for cases outside of mainland China.
Still, the number of international cases is suspiciously low. Let's hope it stays low but I suspect that what happens with these cases in the coming weeks will be critical, and as someone living far away from mainland China, will determine whether or not it's worth becoming truly concerned.
